BRIEF: SANCTIONS AGAINST ROSATOM
Attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure is one of the key elements in the Russian war against Ukraine
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Endgame Scenarios for russia’s war in Ukraine
In the aftermath of the Russian full-scale invasion in February 2022 and the initial Ukrainian counteroffensive of summer and autumn 2022, the first half of 2023 was defined by a static frontline. The Russian military is unable to achieve decisive battlefield success despite all the efforts and involvement of the Wagner Group.
The Armed Forces of Ukraine - not fully transitioned to NATO-standard doctrine and equipment - hold the line in a relentless attritional fight attempting to build up decisive combat power for successive counteroffensive action. The choices driven by NATO members and the Russian Federation before the end of this summer fighting period will define the security landscape far beyond Ukraine across the entirety of Eurasia. ICUV with partners from Euro-Atlantic think tanks have forecast several scenarios and modelled possible outcomes.
RESEARCH: WHY UKRAINE MATTERS TO THE DEVELOPED WORLD IN POST-INDUSTRIAL ECONOMIES?
The development of post-industrial economies, particularly green economies with a reducedм environmental impact, requires critical minerals, such as lithium, neon, and titanium. As a result, many democracies made themselves too dependent on authoritarian regimes, such as China and Russia. Ukraine has the potential to replace them in the market, at least partially.
Developing post-industrial economies, particularly green economies with a reduced environmental impact, require critical minerals, such as lithium, cobalt, nickel, and rare earth elements. The global market competes for access to these resources, with the U.S. leading the way in demand for them.
What is at stake in Ukraine?
russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine is both an end in itself and a means to an end. While the goal of Moscow’s genocidal war of territorial conquest in Ukraine is the destruction of the Ukrainian nation and people, russia is also using its illegal aggression in Ukraine as a battering ram to bring down the Western-led international order. Ukraine’s defeat will become Western strategic defeat, and our joint victory will be victory for the future of world democracies.
RESEARCH: Ukraine’s Victory – what a dark alternative can be
What will happen in Europe and the world if russia wins
RESEARCH: The impact of the russian invasion on the agricultural market of Ukraine
According to the results of 2022, the sown area under grain crops decreased by 28% compared to the average indicators of the three previous years, and under oil crops – by 17%. The main reasons are temporary occupation of parts of Kharkiv, Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson regions and contamination of fields with mines.
Sanctions are possible against Rosatom in the context of the russian nuclear power plant seized
The international working group on the issue of sanctions against russia (the McFaul-Yermak group) in its “Action Plan...” dated April 19 provided for sanctions against Rosatom. But it is not in any of the accepted 7 sanctions packages. At the same time, the issue of Western sanctions against Rosatom is sensitive for russia, as the corporation's statement dated August 19, 2022 shows.
THE WAR IN EUROPE: WHAT THE USA DOES NOT SEE?
The forces of authoritarianism are increasingly united in aggression against democracy. The russian army, struck by the Defense Forces of Ukraine, is suffering more and more losses in Ukraine. But russia is not going to give up aggression. Moreover, it attracts new forces, namely the so-called partial mobilization should provide additional “cannon fodder”. At the same time, the West still has illusions that russia will stop if Ukraine inflicts unacceptable losses in manpower and equipment.
Vision of the current state of affairs and the post-war order in Europe: Forcing the aggressor to peace and transformation
Ukraine’s Post-Victory Reconstruction. Key Principles And Anti-Corruption Safeguards
As of August 1, 2022, direct losses of the Ukrainian economy caused by russia damaging or destroying the residential and non-residential buildings as well as infrastructure in Ukraine amounted to $108.3 billion or 2,9 trillion UAH, according to the estimation of the KSE Institute. The amount is already significant, but as the russian aggression still goes on, that number will keep growing. This makes post-war reconstruction and recovery an important process which has to be scrupulously thought through already now.
