For the fourth consecutive year, Russia has targeted Ukraine’s energy infrastructure as part of its military strategy. The objective is clear: to render Ukrainian cities uninhabitable, disrupt the economy, incite panic, create a humanitarian crisis, potentially lead to a massive wave of refugees, and weaken the country’s ability to sustain itself.

OVERVIEW

Though Russia has not yet achieved its goal, it is adjusting tactics to make its attacks more destructive. Before the invasion, Ukraine’s electricity capacity was 36 GW. By June 2024, due to missile attacks and the occupation of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP), the country operates on only 9 GW. By spring 2023, relentless missile assaults on energy infrastructure and the occupation of the ZNPP had slashed this capacity by 18.1 GW. Approximately 10 GW of installed capacity remains in territories temporarily controlled by Russian forces, including the 6 GW ZNPP, and is not contributing to the grid
In spring 2024, further drone and precision-guided missile attacks on power plants—including thermal power plants (TPP), hydroelectric power plants (HPP), and combined heat and power plants (CHP)—resulted in the loss of an additional 9 GW. The projected electricity shortage for the coming winter of 2024/25 is expected to be at least 4-5 GW, though this number might increase if Russia is successful in further destroying both power plants and key transmission components of the grid.
While Ukraine can import electricity from European countries such as Poland, Slovakia, and Hungary, this option is limited to 1.7 GW—insufficient to meet the growing demand anticipated for summer and especially the autumn/winter seasons of 2024. Additionally, Hungary and Slovakia upgraded their equipment and facilities, Ukraine’s electricity import capacity increased to 2.1 GW
Between late 2022 and early 2025, Russia conducted extensive missile and drone assaults on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, aiming to destabilize the nation’s power grid and demoralize its populace. These attacks escalated in frequency and intensity over time, leading to significant damage and widespread power outages.
Between 2022 and early 2025, Russia launched at least 15 massive waves of attacks specifically targeting Ukraine’s energy infrastructure.

Breakdown by Year:

• 2022: Around 5 major waves, beginning in October when Russia initiated large-scale strikes on Ukraine’s power grid.
• 2023: A relative decrease, with 5 massive waves recorded, the largest being on March 9, 2023, involving 81 missiles, including six Kinzhal hypersonic missiles.
• 2024: An escalation, with 9 waves of large-scale attacks, the most intense occurring on August 26, 2024, when Russia launched over 200 missiles and drones.
• 2025 (early months): Continued attacks, but no new large-scale waves confirmed yet beyond localized strikes on Zaporizhzhia and other regions with respect to electrical energy infrastructure Attacks primarily target gas infrastructure
  
  These large waves were supplemented by ongoing, smaller-scale attacks, including missile and drone strikes on specific energy sites, including heat-generating facilities in cities located in the eastern part of Ukraine.

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