For the third consecutive year, Russia has targeted Ukraine’s energy intrastructure as part of its military strategy. The objective is clear: to render Ukrainian cities uninhabitable, disrupt the economy, incite panic, create a humanitarian crisis, potentially lead to a massive wave of refugees, and weaken the country’s ability to sustain itself.

Though Russia has not yet achieved its goal, it is adjusting tactics to make its attacks more destructive. Before the invasion, Ukraine’s electricity capacity was 36 GW. By June 2024, due to missile attacks and the occupation of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP), the country operates on only 9 GW. By spring 2023, relentless missile assaults on energy infrastructure and the occupation of the ZNPP had slashed this capacity by 18.1 GW. Approximately 10 GW of installed capacity remains in territories temporarily controlled by Russian forces, including the 6 GW ZNPP, and is not contributing to the grid.

In spring 2024, further drone and precision-guided missile attacks on power plants – including thermal power plants (CHP) – resulted in the loss of an additional 9 GW. The projected electricity shortage for the coming winter of 2024/25 is expected to be at least 4-5 GW, though thi number might increase if Russia is successful in further destroying both power plants and key transmission components of the grid.

While Ukraine can import electricity from European countries such as Poland, Slovakia and Hungary, this option is limited to 1.7 GW – insufficient to meet the growing demand anticipated for summer and especially the autumn/winter seasons of 2024. Additionally, if Hungary and Slovakia upgrade their equipment and facilities, Ukraine’s electricity import capacity could increase to 2.3 GW.

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