On July 26, a presentation of a significant sociological research “War, Peace, Victory, and Future” took place in the capital of Ukraine, Kyiv. It gathered diplomats, representatives of think tanks, and civil activists. The presentation served as an important platform for discussing pertinent issues concerning Ukrainian society’s attitudes towards war, peace, and victory, all based on statistical data.
The research “War, Peace, Victory, and Future” was conducted by the International Center of Ukrainian Victory (ICUV) in collaboration with the Ilko Kucheriv “Democratic Initiatives” Foundation and the Center for Political Sociology. This collaboration enabled the researchers to gain a representative understanding of the sentiments and opinions of the Ukrainian population.
Ukrainian sociology needs to be used to explain West, what Ukrainians want, that Ukrainians will fight as long as we have people. But we might run out of people at some point, and what will you do when we run out of soldiers? So your phrase “as long as it takes” could lead to a situation when Ukrainian runs out of people to defend NATO against Russian aggression.
Daria Kaleniuk
Experts explored whether Ukrainians are ready to make concessions to Russia for the sake of peace and what kind of concessions, what is a victory for Ukrainians and what is the biggest threat, how people’s emotional state changes during the war, and what security guarantees Ukrainians consider effective.
The majority of Ukrainians are not willing to compromise with the enemy.
According to the research findings, over half of Ukrainians, precisely 51%, firmly believe that they will not compromise with the enemy and are ready to continue the war until victory.
36% of the respondents are willing to make certain concessions, but this does not include giving up parts of the territory, as well as Ukraine’s entry into NATO and the EU, as concessions to Russia. The idea of “peace at any cost” is supported by only 6% of Ukrainian citizens.
Co-founder of ICUV and Head of the Board of the “Opora” Civil Network, Olga Aivazovska, believes that negotiations are merely an imitation of a peaceful process on Russia’s part. In her opinion, Ukrainian society’s stance on topics that they are not willing to accept as a result of negotiations will be particularly stringent.
68% of Ukrainians believe that the war will end only when there is a complete defeat of Russia, not just its armed forces on Ukrainian territory. This involves a combination of measures, including diplomatic, economic, financial, and sanctions packages, among others. Additionally, 26% believe that victory will come when Russia disintegrates. The radicalization of Ukrainian society is evident because it is clear that concessions do not lead to the desired outcome for Ukraine.
Olga Aivazovska
Overall, Ukrainians demonstrate a strong belief in victory, with 77% being fully confident and 16% leaning towards believing in it. For 70% of the citizens, victory will entail the liberation of all occupied territories of Ukraine from the enemy. Other important indicators of victory include the return of all prisoners and deportees, favored by 60%, and the punishment of war criminals, supported by 51%.
Regarding responsibility for the war, an overwhelming majority of Ukrainians, 78%, hold all Russians accountable for the aggression. Furthermore, 57% wish to see everyone involved in the planning, approval, organization, and commission of war crimes brought to justice.
Society is seeking justice, and justice is not the defeat of Russia on the battlefield, it is also paying the reparations and the issue of a tribunal.
Hanna Hopko
The research also revealed a high percentage of witnesses to war crimes among the respondents – 16%. This is a significant figure for such a large country, emphasizing the importance of issues related to justice and the end of the war.
In conclusion, the research “War, Peace, Victory, Future” provides essential data for understanding the attitudes and perspectives of Ukrainian society regarding current events. It serves as a valuable reference when discussing public opinion in terms of envisioning Ukrainian victory. Its findings enable us to direct efforts towards achieving necessary outcomes for Ukraine, ensuring justice and peace in the country and the broader European continent.
We extend our gratitude to all our partners, speakers, and event participants. You can read the full text of our sociological research “War, Peace, Victory, and Future” at the following link.
Moderator of the event was:
- Olga Aivazovska, co-founder of ICUV and Head of the Board of the “Opora” Civil Network
Speakers:
- Alyona Getmanchuk, Founder and Director of the New Europe Center
- Petro Burkovskiy, Executive Director Ilko Kucheriv “Democratic Initiatives” Foundation
- Olga Kuryshko, Deputy of the Permanent Representative of Ukraine in Autonomous Republic of Crimea
- Alexander Sushko, Executive Director of the International Renaissance Foundation
- Hanna Hopko, co-founder of ICUV, Head of the Board of ANTS National Interests Advocacy Network
- Daria Kaleniuk, co-founder of ICUV, executive director of the Anti-Corruption Action Center
This research was conducted by ICUV as part of its project implemented under the USAID/ENGAGE activity, which is funded by the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) and implemented by Pact. The contents of this research are the sole responsibility of Pact and its implementing partners and do not necessary reflect the views of USAID or the United States Government.
Full text of the survey in Ukrainian