On 10 July 2026, the International Center for Ukrainian Victory (ICUV), together with the ANTS Network Decolonization NGO, hosted a closed-door diplomatic breakfast in Kyiv titled “Trajectories of Russia’s Political Development and Corresponding Challenges for Global Security.”
The discussion brought together representatives of 12 embassies, diplomats, foreign affairs and defence officials from partner countries, and independent security experts to examine possible scenarios for Russia’s political, economic, and social transformation and their implications for European and global security. The meeting was held under the Chatham House Rule, enabling an open and substantive exchange of views.
The event focused on a critical strategic question: rather than asking whether Russia will change, policymakers should prepare for how those changes may unfold and what they will mean for international security. Participants discussed five potential trajectories for Russia’s future and explored policy responses that democratic states should begin developing today. The discussion also drew on findings from a newly completed in-depth study of Russia’s regions, providing participants with evidence-based insights into possible future developments.
The breakfast featured remarks by Hanna Hopko, Chairwoman of the Board of the National Interests Advocacy Network “ANTS” and co-founder of ICUV; Valerii Pekar, co-founder of the Decolonization NGO; Taras Byk, co-founder of the Decolonization NGO; and Prof. Dr. Andrii Dligach, co-founder of the Kyiv Foresight Foundation.
Speaking during the discussion, Hanna Hopko stressed that supporting Ukraine’s victory remains the most cost-effective path to lasting security.
“Ukrainian victory is much cheaper than the continuation of this war or a kind of peace settlement. We are also concerned that some countries may see a potential negotiation process as an opportunity to return to business as usual with Moscow. There must be no reset with Russia 2.0.”
She also emphasized that while the military commitments announced by Ukraine’s partners during the NATO Summit are important and deeply appreciated, they must be matched by sustained political resolve and a long-term strategy aimed at securing Ukraine’s victory rather than managing the consequences of continued Russian aggression.
ICUV sincerely thanks all participants for their active engagement and thoughtful discussion. We remain committed to providing trusted platforms where diplomats, policymakers, and experts can exchange strategic assessments and develop informed responses to the evolving security challenges posed by Russia.