The Russian invasion of Ukraine together with the militarization of the Black Sea has had a significant impact on global food security. Russian warfare has disrupted agricultural production in Ukraine, damaging infrastructure, contaminating arable soils, and endangering water supply. The militarization of the Black Sea and the blockade of Black Sea ports have limited the shipping of Ukrainian agricultural products to Africa, Asia, Europe, and other regions.

This brief highlights key facts and figures of losses and damages that illustrate the war’s far-reaching consequences, as well as forecasts and prospects for the recovery of the Ukrainian agricultural sector.

Total Losses

Ukraine’s agricultural sector has suffered in total more than $80 billion in direct losses and damage, including lost profits of agricultural producers, stolen grain, etc., as a result of the full-scale invasion.

• The total value of the destroyed assets amounts to $10.3 billion, an 18% increase from the estimate provided in April 2023.
• Agricultural products worth over $1.97 billion were stolen or destroyed.
• The largest category of losses is damaged and destroyed agricultural machinery, accounting for 56.7% of all losses. Approximately 181,000 units of machinery and equipment were partially or completely damaged.

Changes in Crop Areas

• The areas directly affected by the hostilities accounted for about 36% of pre-war grain production.
• The area of temporarily occupied agricultural land in Ukraine reaches 8.0 million hectares (this includes 1.8 million hectares in Crimea), including 6.3 million hectares of arable land (1.3 million hectares in Crimea).

Damages, Losses, and Environmental Challenges:

• Russia is deliberately destroying granaries, food storages, and logistics infrastructure, as well as complicating export supplies of Ukrainian grain.
• The direct damage to Ukraine’s infrastructure is at least $2 billion, and indirect losses to agriculture will amount to more than $220 million annually.
• Due to hostilities and mining in 2022, farmers could not use up to 30% of their fields for sowing which reached 5 million hectares, and in 2023, 25% of the area was left unusable.
• The destruction of the Kakhovka dam by Russians led to losses totalling nearly $14 billion. As a result, 90% of the canals, including the reservoir, have dried up. The flooding also affected over 290 km of roads. Additionally, the destruction caused damage to crops, livestock, and fish, with losses estimated at $25 million.
• The region’s ecology suffered significant impacts, including the leakage of 150 tons of oil and the desalination of the Black Sea.
• Complete restoration of navigation on the Dnipro River will only be achievable once the region is liberated from occupation and substantial investment is made.

Irrigation System: General Consequences

• Water supply to 31 irrigation systems in Dnipro, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia regions was stopped. In 2021, they provided irrigation for 584,000 hectares, from which they harvested about 4 million tons of grain and oil crops worth $1.5 billion.
• This year, only 13 irrigation systems are operating on the right bank of the Dnipro River. As a result of the Kakhovka Dam destruction, 94% of irrigation systems in Kherson, 74% in Zaporizhzhia, and 30% in Dnipro regions were left without water.
• Due to the lack of reclamation, Ukraine may lose 0.5-1 million tons of grain.

Ukraine is the Most Mined Country in the World

• Since the start of the full-scale invasion, 174 thousand km2 of Ukraine’s territory, representing almost 30%, has been identified as potentially contaminated with mines and explosive remnants of war. This area is equivalent to the combined land area of countries such as Belgium, the Netherlands, Switzerland, Slovenia, and Denmark.
• About 4 million hectares of agricultural land is unusable due to mines, contamination with explosive remnants, or ongoing hostilities.
• Thanks to demining, 18,000 km2 of land was returned to the economy during the year. The assessment of potentially contaminated land has been reduced to 156 thousand km2.
• In 2023, over 257 thousand hectares of land have been surveyed as part of the priority demining of agricultural areas. Nearly 195 thousand hectares have been cleared and returned to farmers for use. 
• In 2024, Ukraine aims to demine more than 5,000 km2 of agricultural land. These are planned figures; the actual amount of demining areas will depend on the situation on the ground.
• As of February 2024 the estimated reconstruction needs, including demining, amount to $486 billion, highlighting the scale of the task ahead.

Ukrainian Exports by Sea

• Thanks to the Black Sea Grain Initiative (BSGI), launched in July 2022, Ukraine exported 32.1 million tons of grains, oilseeds and processed products by sea within 12 months. 
• After Russia terminated the Black Sea Grain Initiative in July 2023, with the help of weapons from our partners, the Ukrainian armed forces pushed back the enemy and opened the way for the transport of Ukrainian grain across the Black Sea.  
• Once independent Ukrainian exports were launched, from September 2023 to February 2024, they amounted to 1.3 million tons by road, 4.8 million tons by rail, 9.6 million tons through the Danube ports, and 18.5 million tons through seaports.
• Thirty-four countries joined the “Grain from Ukraine” humanitarian food programme. The cargos with Ukrainian grain were sent to Ethiopia, Somalia, Yemen, Kenya, and others.

Threats and Challenges

• The Black Sea remains a pathway for Russian UAVs and missiles. 
• А significant number of strikes go along Ukraine’s shipping routes and towards the seaports of Greater Odesa and the Danube river ports. 
• Between July and December 2023, the United Nations recorded 31 attacks that damaged or destroyed the grain production and export capability of Ukraine.
• Russia has been shelling frontline territories and communities, including functioning farms and agricultural enterprises.
• Port infrastructure continues to be hit. Odesa is under constant enemy shelling, which is affecting civilian and port infrastructure. 
• Due to rising production costs, Ukrainian farmers need more financial resources to run their businesses sustainably. Approximately 44% of producers reported catastrophic increases in production costs, leading to a reduction in agricultural companies and losses for small-scale farmers.
• The shortage of labour resources in agricultural production is significant, with over 150,000 farmers and food system workers directly impacted by the war or forced to migrate.
• 1/3 of agricultural companies left the market. Another 10-20% may withdraw in the 2023/24 marketing year. 
• Destruction of the infrastructure for producing, processing, and storing agricultural products and food continues.
• Ukraine is suffering from environmental challenges and a lack of water for irrigation.

Impact on the Global Food Security

• Pandemic-related market shocks increased global food prices throughout 2020 and 2021. Because of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, global food prices hit an all-time high in March 2022. Prices fell below their pre-invasion levels by December 2022, and by January 2024, the FAO announced that global food prices had fallen to their lowest level in three years. However, receding global food prices mask an ongoing global food security crisis, which Russia continues to manipulate through its agricultural exports.
• While global food prices measured in U.S. dollars are falling, local food prices measured in national currencies are rising in many countries. 
• As of September and October 2023, more than a third of low-income countries (LICs) and lower-middle-income countries (LMICs) experienced food price inflation of more than 15%, with food price inflation at 30 % for LICs. These same countries have relatively less financial capabilities to support household-level food security,
• According to the Food Security Information Network’s Global Report on Food Crises, 258 million people faced high levels of acute food insecurity in 2022, the highest number in the history of the report, due at least in part to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and resulting shocks in the food, fertiliser, and energy markets. 
• The cost of humanitarian assistance skyrocketed due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Today, the World Food Programme (WFP) monthly operating costs remain $28 million higher than pre-invasion.
• Rising global food prices have increased the cost of commodities purchased and distributed by organisations such as the WFP and UNICEF. At the same time, rising local food prices have necessitated increases in the value of in-kind assistance, while rising fuel costs have increased the cost of providing emergency services. 
• For those suffering acute food insecurity, particularly children, a lack of access to adequate nutrition due to the effects of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine could have lifelong impacts on physical and cognitive development.
• Vladimir Putin in late 2023 declared his intention to “replace Ukrainian grain” with Russia’s exports, making up for shortfalls in food-importing countries through offers of low-cost or free grain. 
• Food exports are a major source of Russia’s soft power, particularly in the Global South, and the potency of this weapon depends on the levels of food insecurity and food-import dependence in the countries Russia seeks to manipulate.

Conclusions:

The war in Ukraine has inflicted substantial damage on agricultural productivity, infrastructure, and environmental sustainability, posing significant challenges to global food security. 

Efforts to mitigate these impacts require comprehensive strategies, international cooperation, and sustained investment to rebuild agricultural resilience and ensure a stable food supply.

Necessary and urgent measures to be taken:

• Strengthening Ukrainian air defense, bolstering front-line artillery, and acquiring long-range missiles are vital for protecting agricultural infrastructure and ensuring food security.
• Engaging international support through financial aid, including Russian frozen state asset confiscation and strategic military assistance to Ukraine, is crucial for Ukraine’s recovery and safeguarding of global food supplies.
• Imposing new sanctions and strengthening control over existing ones.
• The complete demilitarisation of the Black Sea and the restoration of ancient trade routes are essential goals for fostering stability and economic growth in the region.
• Support in demining efforts, including through the Black Sea mine clearance initiative by Bulgaria, Romania, and Turkey.

Ukraine’s complete victory, including the liberation of Crimea and the Black Sea ports, complete demilitarisation of the Black Sea, and the establishment of sustainable peace on Ukrainian terms, is crucial for ensuring global food security.

In preparing the Brief, we used materials from the Research IMPACT OF THE WAR ON THE GLOBAL FOOD SECURITY by the International Centre for Ukrainian Victory and Analysis Russia, Ukraine, and Global Food Security: A One-Year Assessment by Caitlin Welsh, Director, of Global Food and Water Security Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, D.C.